iPhones and Android phones seem to be everywhere I look in Silicon Valley. The future is obvious, isn't it? IPhone, Android and no one else. They will form an exclusive duo in smartphones, just as Windows and Mac have in personal computers.
Make way, however, for Windows Phone. Yes, Windows Phone. Despite Microsoft's multiple, abject failures with mobile phones since 2002, many software developers and industry watchers expect Microsoft to become the second-largest smartphone player worldwide.
The evidence isn't visible today, nor will it appear anytime soon. Even at year's end, Android will have a 39.5 per cent share of smartphones worldwide, according to projections from IDC, the research firm. Symbian - used by Nokia, though it is not a major presence in the United States - would be second, at 20.9 per cent, while Apple's iOS, the software that powers the iPhone, would be third, at 15.7. Windows Phone 7 and its predecessor, Windows Mobile, would be far behind, at 5.5 per cent.
These rankings are likely to change thanks to one player, Nokia, which has seen its market share shrink in the United States. It has formed an alliance with Microsoft and will switch from Symbian to Windows Phone software on its smartphones.
As a result, according to IDC predictions for 2015, Windows Phone 7 will occupy second place, at 20.9 per cent of the market, ahead of iOS, which is projected to stay near 15 per cent. BlackBerry, then as now, would be No. 4.